Air Transport World

Avitas market commentary: ATR 42-500, ATR 72-500, DHC-8-Q300, DHC-8-Q400.(FACTS & FIGURES)(Statistical table)(Company rankings)

There were 101 ATR 42-500s in service worldwide as of October 2007, with a further 12 held on order backlog. Geographically, the fleet is quite concentrated with around half based in Europe. There are no operators of the type in North America, although otherwise the aircraft are widely distributed among around 30 operators. Like other modern turboprops, the ATR 42-500 has drawn the benefit of the recent increase in the cost of fuel. However, the order backlog has remained steady since the middle of 2006.

ATR has enjoyed much more success of late with the ATR 72-500. As of October 2007, there were 163 aircraft in service worldwide with a very broad range of almost 50 operators. Like its smaller sibling, the ATR 72-500 has yet to achieve notable market penetration in North America. The type has been the most popular member of the manufacturer's regional aircraft family and since mid-2006 the backlog of firm orders has jumped from 92 to 139 units, with options rising from 26 to 63 units.

Both of the above types compete very closely with the DHC-8-Q300 and DHC-8-Q400, manufactured by Bombardier. There were 241 aircraft in service as of October 2007, although the backlog comprised just five firm orders and 38 options. The DHC-8-Q400 had fewer units in service at the same time but its order backlog has recently shown a dramatic improvement. Also as of October, there were 172 aircraft in active use, with a further 78 held on firm order and options reserved for a total of 138 units. This compares to a backlog of 56 firm orders and 82 options in mid-2006. Both the DHC-8-Q300 and DHC-8-Q400 have secured notable sales in Europe, Asia/Pacific and North America.

Aircraft Data

           ATR-42-500  ATR 72-500       DHC-8-300  DHC-8-400

Engine          PW127E 104  PW127F155   PW123      PW150 1;
Types                                   129;
                                        PW123B     PW150A
                                        115        166

MTOW                   41       48.5 -  41.0 -     60.25 -
                                49.6    43.0        62.5

# in Fleet            105       155       18          86

# of Operators         29        31       53          20

# on Order             23       152       18          86

Average Age of
Fleet, Yrs.           7.5       5.5      10.2        3.7

Geographic Distribution

Europe               54  50  63  82

Africa/Middle East    6  20  31   6

Asia/Pacifc          26  70  65  36

North America                49  43

South America        18  15  36

Demographics as of September 2007. Source: Aviation Specialists Group,
Inc.

Aircraft Values

            Year
Aircraft    Built    2007 *   2012 **  2017 **   2022 **

ATR 42-500  1999      $6.9     $4.4     $41.2    $1.8
ATR 72-500  2002     $11.0     $7.1     $54.0    $5.3
DHC-8-300   1999      $6.9     $4.3     $45.6    $3.0
DHC-8-400   2002     $12.6     $8.7     $77.5    $6.5

Values assume Stage 3 aircraft. * Current Market Value--Most
likely trading price under current market, 2007=NEW conditions,
rounded to nearest US$million. ** Future Base Value--value in a
balanced market,  inflated at 2.5% p.a., rounded to nearest
US$million. Source: Avitas, Inc.

Non-US Airline Traffic-2007

                    Pass.   07/06      RPKs     07/06    FTKs
Airline             (000)   chg.      (000)      chg.   (000)

Adria                  878    8.0       930046   10.0       3125
Air Baltic           1,691   39.9    1,965,000   51.3         --
Air Canada              --     --   63,781,000    2.7         --
Air France KLM      63,056    2.9  155,386,750    4.4  9,255,000
Air Malta            1,117   -3.6    1,775,900   -5.5      6,500
Air Nippon *           202   16.1      418,746   15.9     20,699
Air One              5,295   20.7    3,072,400   20.6         --
Alitalia            16,637    2.6   26,048,000    2.9  1,357,300
All Nippon *         2,773    7.9   14,942,165    9.2  1,057,359
Asiana *             4,729   11.4   12,602,095   11.7  2,319,203
Austrian Group       9,311   -0.8   17,348,800  -13.5         --
Bluel                1,527   -1.4    1,248,700    4.0         --
BMI                  7,048   -4.2    6,325,800   -6.5     69,100
British Airways     28,392   -0.5   85,119,078   -0.3  3,790,000
Cargolux                --     --           --     --  4,014,200
Cathay Pacific (1)  19,114    3.0   67,128,541    3.2  7,224,562
China Airlines       4,125    6.4   14,086,372    5.6  2,418,340
China Southern      31,885   16.0   38,173,540   18.1  1,043,850
Copa                    --     --    5,232,000   24.2         --
Croatia              1,493    7.4    1,158,996    5.3      1,812
CSA                  4,701   -0.3    6,665,965   -4.9     26,963
Cyprus Airways       1,303    6.0    2,592,600    3.6      4,100
Emirates            15,008   22.1   66,420,120   22.7  4,009,289
EVA Air  *           3,606    2.0   14,300,215    2.5  2,797,282
Finnair Group        7,422    5.2   16,925,000   15.4    444,700
Garuda  *            1,293   -2.1    4,515,306   11.5     85,046
Iberia              22,763   -3.4   45,554,000    3.5         --
Icelandair           1,256    3.3    3,372,600   -0.5         --
Japan Airlines      39,184    2.8   68,098,847   -4.0  3,435,296
Japan Asia             705   -4.0    1,440,395   -3.5     83,430
JAT                    887    3.2      911,800    7.7      2,900
Korean Air *         7,349   12.7   29,648,012   14. … 

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