Air Transport World

Market commentary November 2007.(FACTS & FIGURES)(Statistical table)

With its successor already in development and a dwindling order backlog, the production run of the 747-400 is approaching an end. As of July 2007, 648 747-400/-400ERs were in commercial service worldwide, almost 60% of them with Asia/Pacific-based operators. The program has been a very successful one but the 32 aircraft remaining on order at that time were all freighters and Boeing has already secured 87 firm orders for the forthcoming 747-8. Older models of the 747-400 are now being converted to freighters and several original operators of the passenger aircraft have ordered replacements. However, the market for the 747-400 is firm and values and lease rates for the type have rebounded strongly since the recession.

Originally intended as an alternative to the 747-400, the A340-600 is now more closely matched to the 777-300ER. Still a young program--the type entered service in 2002--there were just 80 aircraft operating as of July 2007 with 26 units on firm order. The selling point of the A340-600 was its four engines which avoided any ETOPS restrictions, while also offering very long range and high capacity. Now, the attraction tends to be technical commonality with other Airbus types. Looking forward, the manufacturer will probably be much more successful with the A350 XWB, although both this and the A340 have been outrun in the market by Boeing with the 777 and 787.

Asia/Pacific is also strategically important to the 777-300/-300ER. A full 80% of 777-300s were in service there as of July 2007 along with 38% of 777-300ERs. Worldwide, there were 60 777-300s and 96 777-300ERs in operation although all of the outstanding backlog--of 178 units--was for the-300ER. The program is still very youthful and, as a stretch of the successful 777-200ER, the 777-300ER can be expected to continue to garner more orders for some time.--Martin O'Hanrahan

Aircraft Data

                   747-400        A340-600      777-300    777-300ER

Engine Types    CF6-80C2 157;   Trent 500 79   PW4000 18;  GE 90 101
                 PW4000 159;                  Trent800 42
                RB211-524 103

# in Fleet            419             79           60          101

# of Operators         39             10            7           10
Operators

# on Order              0             33            0          202

Average Age of       12.8            2.3          6.7          1.4
Fleet, Yrs.

Geographic Distribution

Europe                116             50                        23

Afroca/Middle          22             16           12           33
East

Asia/Pacific          226             13           48           40

North America          52                                        5

South America           3

Demographics as of September 2007. Source: Aviation Specialists
Group, Inc.

Aircraft Values

Aircraft   YearBuilt  2007 *   2012 **  2017 **  2022 **

747-400         2000   $72.7   $55.7    $41.2    $28.7
A340-600        2004   $97.3   $69.7    $54.0    $39.5
777-300         2000   $78.6   $60.6    $45.6    $31.2
777-300ER       2004  $121.2   $98.8    $77.5    $57.8

Values assume Stage 3 aircraft. * Current Market
Value--Most likely trading price under current market,
2007=NEW conditions, rounded to nearest US$million.
** Future Base Value--value in a balanced market,
inflated at 2.5% p.a., rounded to nearest US$million.
Source: Avitas, Inc.

Non-US Airline Traffic-2007

                     Pass.  07/06      RPKs       07/06    FTKs
Airline              (000)    chg.    (000)        chg.   (000)

Adria                  878    8.0      930,046   10.0      3,125
Air Baltic           1,498   39.0    1,748,000   50.5         --
Air Canada              --    --    57,834,000    2.7         --
Air France KLM      56,796    3.4  138,491,750    5.0  8,258,000
Air Malta              484   -2.7      769,900   -5.1      3,200
Air Nippon *           175   13.8      363,258   13.5     18,222
Air One              3,237   15.5    1,865,200   16.6         --
Alitalia            14,432    3.4   22,496,000    3.2  1,229,000
All Nippon *         2,773    7.9   13,206,925    8.1    927,721
Asiana *             4,024   12.4   10,666,178   12.6  2,036,121
Austrian Group       8,348   -0.7   15,700,000  -13.1         --
Blue1                1,354   -0.2    1,114,000    6.3         --
BMI                  4,390   -7.1    3,817,500   -9.5     44,000
British Airways     25,519   -0.6   75,491,078   -0.6  3,395,000
Cargolux                --     --          --      --  3,569,540
Cathay Pacific (1)  17,076    2.6   59,981,957    2.7  6,382,658
China Airlines      4,125     6.4   14,086,372    5.6  2,418,340
China Southern      31,885   16.0   38,173,540   18.1  1,043,850
Copa                    --     --    5,232,000   24.2         --
Croatia              1,335    7.2    1,037,327    5.1      1,614
CSA                  4,201   -1.1    5,973,651   -5.6     24,098
Cyprus Airway          744    2.4    1,484,100    1.5      4,100
Emirates            13,273   22.1   58,685,575   22.9  3,522,561
EVA Air *            3,043    3.0   12,079,341    7.2  2,384,903
Finnair Group        6,704    4.0    15,171,00   14.3    393,400
Garuda *             1,066   -2.1    3,690,419   12.1     73,130
Iberia              20,397   -3.4   40,758,000    3.5         --
Icelandair             688    1.3    1,843,600   -1.4         --
Japan Airlines      34,927    3.4   60,353,844   -4.3  3,025,149
Japan Asia             599   -1.8    1,222,743   -1.2     70,782
JAT                    498    5.1      514,100    9.4      2,000
Korean Air *         6,209   12.7   24,953,678   15.4  4,699,831
LAN Airlines         8,043   27.1   17,598,000   26.1  1,947,700
LOT                  2,021   17.4    3,292,300   11.2     38,700
Lufthansa           42,483    5.6   89,115,000    6.9         --
Lufthansa Cargo         --     --           --     --  6,214,000
Luxair                  37    6.5      217,000  -11.7         --
Malaysia *           4,157    0.4   18,003,806   -3.1  1,206,477
Malev                1,412    4.5    2,018,000    5.9     14,300
Olympic              2,660    2. … 

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