Air Transport World

Facts & figures.(aircraft industry)(Statistical data)

Avitas Market Commentary

A320-200, 737-400 and 737-800

All of the above programs can be regarded as being successful, with the A320-200 and 737-800 extremely so. With 1,599 examples in service as of January 2007, the A320-200 has been one of the most popular aircraft types ever developed with a strong order backlog (of 997 units) still standing. The type enjoys a very diverse operator base and is complemented by being part of a family of technically compatible narrowbodies. The A320-200 has proved itself in a variety of roles and will continue to be a key type in the marketplace for many years to come. Older fleets have become eligible for replacement while freighter conversion programs are likely to gain momentum over the next several years as the fleet ages.

Also as of January 2007, there were 467 737-400s in service worldwide. The type, known as part of Boeing's family of 737 Classics, is now considered older technology and was superseded by the more advanced 737-800. Older models are migrating to freighter conversion while some of the larger fleets--such as at US Airways, Alaska Airlines and Malaysia Airlines--will be targeted for replacement.

Boeing's 737-800 has also succeeded in gaining substantial market penetration. There were 1,109 units in service as of January 2007 with a backlog of 958 firm orders. As with the A320-200, the operator base is diverse both in terms of operators and geography.

The 737-800 and A320-200 are very close competitors and sales campaigns in this size category are intensely fought. In recent months, industry observers have been giving more attention to what approach the two major airframe manufacturers will take toward developing the next generation of narrowbodies. Boeing and Airbus are both likely to attract more interest from operators in successors to the 737-800 and A320-200 respectively.

--Martin O'Hanrahan

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Aircraft Data

                    A320-200       737-400        737-800

MTOW, 000#s         162-169.8      138.5-150      155.5-174.2
Engine Types        CFM56-5A 359;  CFM56-3B2 62;  CFM56-7B22 2;
                    CFM56-5B 503;  CFM56-3C1 406  CFM56-7B24 122;
                    V2500-A1 136;                 CFM56-7B26 744;
                    V2500-A5 625                  CFM56-7B27 263

# in Fleet          1,623          468            1,131
# of Operators        133           63               86
# on Order          1,115            0              952
Average Age of          7.7         14.1              4.5
  Fleet, Years

Geographic Distribution
Europe                559          175              407
Africa-Middle East     97           13               65
Asia-Pacific          400          173              311
North America         428          103              312
South America         139            4               36

Demographics as of March 2007. Source: Aviation Specialists Group, Inc.

US Fuel Cost And Consumption

March 2007

                Total                Cost/    chg.     chg.
                gallons      06/05   gallon   month    year
Operation       (000)        % chg.  (cents)  (cents)  (cents)

Total domestic    1,160,882  (0.7)   181.5    6.9       0.5
Total int'l.        510,980  (0.7)   188.4    6.3      -2.4
System total      1,671,862  (0.7)   183.6    6.7      -0.4

Source: US DOT* Does not include taxes, into-plane fees, or expenses
associated with hedging programs. Based on last carrier submissions, the
gallons used above represent 99.9% of the total consumption by Major,
National and large Regional carriers.

Aircraft Values

          Year
Aircraft  Built  2007*  2012**  2017**  2022**

A320-200  1996   $20.8  $16.5   $12.4    $8.6
 737-400  1994   $12.5   $9.8    $7.2    $4.9
 737-800  2001   $30.5  $24.7   $19.6   $14.7

Values assume Stage 3 aircraft. * Current Market Value--Most likely
trading price under current market, 2007=NEW conditions, rounded to
nearest US$million. ** Future Base Value--value in a balanced market,
inflated at 2.5% p.a., rounded to nearest US$million. Source: Avitas,
Inc.

Regional World Airline Traffic

January-February 2007

Latin America *

              2007      2006      % chg.

RPKs (mil.)   21,398    22,246    -3.8
ASKs (mil.)   30,824    31,446    -2.0
Pass. (000)   16,193    15,218     6.4
Pass. LF (%)      69.4      70.7  -1.3 pts.
FTKs (mil.)      536       565    -5.0

Source: ALTA

Asia/Pacific

              2007       2006       % chg.

RPKs (mil.)    96,730     92,531    4.5
ASKs (mil.)   126,266    123,028    2.6
Pass. (000)    23,122     21,956    5.3
Pass. LF (%)       76.6       75.2  1.4 pts.
FTKs (mil.)     8,186      7,950    3.0

Source: AAPA

Europe

              2007      2005      % chg.

RPKs (mil.)   110,056   104,517   5.3
ASKs (mil.)   151,775   145,239   4.5
Pass. (000)    49,188    46,935   4. … 

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