When this month's thoughts reach you, the results of local elections across the country may well be known. No attempt therefore to anticipate the outcome. Raw egg on the face is never preferred by columnists to poached on their plates.

But certainly there are signs of a strong anti-government swing. In London especially, where every council seat is being contested, this could have a particular and national significance.

BlackWatch was personally concerned in, and therefore readily recalls, the 1968 local elections. Tories took 60 per cent of the vote and went on to win the General (remember Ted Heath!) two years later against all advance opinion polls.

In 1978 it was 50 per cent of the vote but still next year's General was unexpectedly won, and the Thatcher years commenced. …

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